With a gross domestic growth (GDP) of 0.55% in the second quarter of 2017, Nigeria exited its first economic recession in over 20 years.
To know how we managed to get out of the doldrums of economic comatose, the National Bureau of Statistics, (NBS), said in its report that the economy grew at 0.55% on a year-on-year. The escape growth figure showed that it was only 2.04% higher than the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2016 (-1.49%) and higher by 1.46% points from rate recorded in the preceding quarter.
While we are still in a positive territory, there are obvious signals that our recovery is not only fragile but on a precipice that could see us in another recession. GDP for the second quarter of 2018 came in at 1.5% compared to 1.9% reported within the same quarter of 2017.
At the recently-held 2019 outlook of the Media Independent Practitioners Council of Nigeria, there was a consensus that the incoming quarters of 2019 bode a mix-bag of uncertainties and opportunities for the economy.
Across political, economic, social, technological and global scenes; there are signs that another recession might be inevitable should a combination of slower growth, inordinate economic policies, heightened political risks and geopolitical tendencies dictate the tune of Nigeria’s growth trajectory. The Nigerian marketing communication industry saw one of its biggest shocks during the recession with major advertisers cutting the budget by up to 70%.
As a matter of fact, the out-of-home segment of the market has not fully recovered from the slowdown.
However, there is a silver lining. The year 2019 would not be a gloom and doom year. A managed oil price would see our foreign reserve strengthen to defend the Naira. Inflation could freeze at 12% or go lower which could see the first cut in headline interest rate for the first time in more than two years. As a young country, consumer goods brands are expected to see a better year in 2019 should the aforementioned variables work in favour of the economy.
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