By Alex C
A two-decade surge in growth in Africa suggests the poorest continent is starting to come to grips with its challenges and has raised the prospect of the “African lions” emulating the “Asian tiger” economies in the 21st century. Africa’s advantages include vast untapped resources, a youthful population and an expanding middle-class. Offsetting these are rampant poverty and inequality, a rise in Islamist militant violence and appalling infrastructure.
Data collated by the African Development Bank support the premise of an Africa on the rise: Average life expectancy rose to 58 in 2011, from 37 in 1950, and primary school enrollment climbed to 77 percent in 2011, from 52 percent in 1990. Governance improved in 46 of 52 African countries in the 13 years through 2013, according to the Mo Ibrahim Foundation, which takes into account indicators such as safety and rule of law, human rights and economic progress.
The International Monetary Fund said July 24 2014 it estimates sub-Saharan Africa’s economies will grow 5.4 percent this year and 5.8 percent in 2015, compared with 1.7 percent and 3 percent in the U.S. for the same two years respectively. The Washington-based IMF projected Chinese growth at 7.4 percent this year and 7.1 percent in 2015.
Nigeria’s economy, Africa’s largest, has the potential to expand about 7.1 percent a year through 2030, McKinsey & Co. said in a July 24 report. That would make it one of the world’s top 20 economies, with a consumer base exceeding the current populations of France and Germany, according to the New York-based company.
Africa’s share of the global economy could triple by 2050, while average per-capita income could surge sixfold and 1.4 billion more Africans could join the middle class, under the most optimistic of scenarios sketched out in a study commissioned by the African Union and the Economic Commission for Africa. Prerequisites would be capable states, pragmatic leadership, strong institutions, peace and security and respect for the rule of law.
Africa secured 5.7 percent of global foreign direct investment projects last year, up from 3.6 percent a decade earlier, accounting firm EY said in its 2014 Africa Attractiveness Survey, released on May 15. More than 400,000 new companies were registered on the continent last year, according to the Tunis-based African Development Bank.
The rosy economic data and outlook mask the abysmal living standards that still confront most of Africa’s 1.1 billion people.